2005年中国电信运营市场发展现状与展望

2005年是中国电信业的“转型年”．国内电信运营商依赖投资拉动增长速度减缓的趋势得以深化。国内电信运营商的投资更加趋于理性。通过总结2005年田内电信运营市场态势、各运管商发展策略、行业热点及未来展望四个方面阐述国内电信运营市场的发展状况。     

能源安全及"后石油时代"的对策

介绍了当前世界能源安全面临的挑战，以及面对这些挑战，美国、欧洲、日本、俄罗斯等国家采取的对策和计划，提出了中国应对“后石油时代”应采取的措施。     

华中电网电压等级的发展与展望

介绍了华中地区超高压大电网的发展历程、发展前景以及“十一五”期间的发展重点。     

从外资零售企业看加入WTO后我国零售企业的发展

我国已加入WTO，并将遵守其游戏规则逐渐开放国内市场，内资零售企业将获得更多商机，也将面临巨大的压力和激烈的竞争，文中结合我国零售业现状，研究国外大型零售企业的成功经验，探讨我国零售企业的应对策略。     

Mapping surface temperature in large lakes with MODIS data

Satellite sensor MODIS on two platforms can produce Sea Surface Temperature over certain regions about three to four times per day. Our objective was to test if the MODIS SST product can be applied for lakes whose surface areas are large enough to be observed at the MODIS spatial resolution and to compare the satellite-derived lake surface temperatures with in situ measurements. Surface temperatures for Lakes Vänern and Vättern in Sweden, two of the largest European lakes, are extracted from the MODIS/Terra images for period 2001-2003. The results are analyzed on different quality levels, as all MODIS L2 products are equipped with an additional quality flag. We present temperature development over 2001-2003, and show the capability of the MODIS SST product to couple the known thermodynamical features in the lakes under study, where temperature varies greatly with space and time. These results can complement lake monitoring programs anywhere.     

地震采集中检波器自然频率的试验分析

为了达到提高分辨率的目的，对不同自然频率的检波器进行了多次试验。通过试验分析认为，检波器在自然频率方面有所差别，在单炮记录上表现为对低、高频干扰压制情况有所不同，但是资料通过处理后，几种检波器的频谱和能量均无明显的差别。高分辨率勘探不等于高频勘探，而是一种宽频带的勘探，所以选择自然频率低的检波器有利于高分辨率勘探。     

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川东地区石炭系气藏的气水界面主要分布在两个范围内，一是潜伏构造气藏的气水界面海拔较深，一般为-3800～-4700m；另一是主体构造气藏的较浅，一般为-1600～-2600m。各构造带之间相邻的潜伏圈闭气藏往往受同一大向斜内的水域相隔，并在原始状态下相互维系了气水的压力平衡，因此同一向斜内某一构造的水井资料就可用于计算另一构造同一气藏的气水界面。基于这种认识，章根据同向斜域内相邻构造的水井资料计算卧龙河、双家坝、云和寨、高峰场、胡家坝等气田的原始气水界面，得到的气水界面与实际误差为-3～-18m。说明该方法在实际应用中可靠性较好，可节省钻井投资，缩短气田的评价周期。     

Assessing pre- and post-deformation in the southern Arava Valley segment of the Dead Sea Transform, Israel by differential interferometry

Differential radar interferometry, using archived ERS data over the region of the Dead Sea Transform, allows to detect ground movement (subsidence or uplift) in playas within the southern Arava Valley segment of the Dead Sea Rift. These measurements are consistent with a mean displacement rate of about 0.4 cm/month, in the direction of the radar beam, during the 8-month period preceding the Nuweiba earthquake of 22 November 1995. In the 3 years following the earthquake, the measured rate was smaller by a factor of 10. These movements are not related to salt diapirs or water pumping activities in the area. The exact location, along faults, suggests a possible correlation with pre-seismic and post-seismic fault deformation.A simple fault model consistent with the observed phenomena associates the observed subsidence/uplift to right and left stepping en-echelon fault patterns related to inter-seismic tensional accumulation along the faults. Further observations are necessary on this site and similar fault areas to corroborate the correlation between seismic activity and the observed phenomena. Monitoring of these sites should continue with differential Global positioning system (GPS) measurements and radar interferometric analysis using Envisat and Radarsat as well as archived data (including J-ERS).     

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通过对西气东输管道设计输量的研究 ,文章阐述了天然气管道输送量的选择与天然气市场需求预测、资源储备、气田开发方案之间的关系。从我国燃气需求增长曲线和国民经济总产值增长曲线的分析对比中 ,得出燃气增长规律与国民经济总产值增长规律相似的结论 ,并以此为依据 ,对西气东输管道天然气市场需求趋势进行了预测 ,提出了西气东输市场重点开发地区是上海、浙江、江苏等地区 ,用户消费结构重点放在城市燃气和发电等方面的观点。文章在天然气用户甄别方法中提出了用户项目成功率的概念 ,为进一步开展市场量化预测、理性选择天然气管道输量研究奠定了基础。根据对市场需求与气源供应之间的供需平衡分析 ,西气东输管道输量确定为 12 0× 10 8m3 /a较为合理。     

Nonlinear Thermal Analysis for Qing-Tibet Railway Embankments in Cold Regions

Heat convection in ballast mass in railway embankments is a problem of heat convection in porous media. In order to calculate the temperature distribution of the Qing-Tibet railway embankment from the governing equations used to study forced convection for incompressible fluids porous media, detailed finite-element formulas for heat convection in porous media are derived using Galerkin’s method. The temperature distributions on central lines of the traditional railway embankment, the ripped-rock embankment, and the ripped-rock revetment embankment that were constructed on July 15, 2002 have been analyzed and compared on July 15, October 15 in the 24th year after construction, and January 15 in the 25th year after construction under the climatic and geological conditions on the Qing-Tibet Railway. The calculated results indicate that the traditional railway embankment will raise the permafrost temperature under the embankment base and make the permafrost embankment thermally unstable. The ripped-rock embankment and the ripped-rock revetment embankment will reduce the permafrost temperature under the embankment base in cold regions, therefore maintaining the thermal stability of permafrost. However, the ripped-rock embankment needs more rock mass while the ripped-rock revetment embankment need less rock mass, and its construction cost is lower than that of the former. Therefore, it is highly recommended that the ripped-rock revetment embankment be used for the Qing-Tibet railway embankment structure in high temperature permafrost regions so that the permafrost embankment can be protected as much as possible.